Volreport for Week 43, 2026 (Oct 19 – Oct 23)

All reports

ETH screens cheapest to own this week (IV−RV -9), while BTC is the most expensive (+6). 25Δ risk-reversals stay negative on ETH, SPCX, BTC — the market paying up for downside, leaving calls the cheaper wing. Tokenised gold (XAUT) prints its own ~19 vol — a calm, low-beta anchor against the crypto names.

Vol Value Scoreboard

IV(30d) − RV(30d), ranked cheapest → most expensive

Asset	Spot	1w %	RV 30d	IV 30d	IV − RV	Verdict
ETHEther	$2,406	−0.7%	55.3	45.9	−9.4	Cheap
BTCBitcoin	$81,793	+0.3%	32.2	37.7	+5.5	Fair
SOLSolana	$104	0%	54.9	52.7	−2.2	Fair
XRPXRP	$1.32	+1%	57.3	55.4	−1.9	Fair
XAUTTether Gold	$4,029	−3.1%	15.6	18.9	+3.3	Fair
SPCXSpaceX	$149	+2.1%	56.9	70.2	−7.5	Cheap

Cheapest of the week

Realized-vol cone vs current implied

ETHBuy of the week

Realized-vol percentile envelope across trailing windows · current implied vol overlaid · Ether · ETH index + listed options

Realized range (min–max)Middle half (p25–p75)Median realizedImplied today

Implied (45.9) sits −13 vols vs the 30-day realized median (58.9) — reads cheap to own.

Reading the tiers below: the 25Δ Risk Reversal

A 25Δ risk reversal compares two equally out-of-the-money options — a 25-delta call and a 25-delta put — and takes the difference in their implied vol. A negative number means puts cost more: the market is paying up for downside protection, and calls are the relatively cheap wing. A positive number is the reverse — calls cost more, puts are the cheap wing.

Tier 1 — Liquid listed options

Spot$2,406

1w−0.7%

RV 30d55.3

IV 30d45.9

25Δ RR−3.5

ETH fell 0.7% on the week; 30-day realized held near 55. Own-book 30-day implied at 46 screens 9 vols under realized — vol is cheap to own here; 25Δ risk-reversal -3.5 — puts pricier (downside bid).

IV term structure, days → vol

25Δ risk reversal · call IV − put IV

Short · 1d expiry−12.2 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

~30d · 35d expiry−3.5 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

Spot$81,793

1w+0.3%

RV 30d32.2

IV 30d37.7

25Δ RR−4.5

BTC gained 0.3% on the week; 30-day realized cooled 36→32. Own-book 30-day implied at 38 is roughly balanced against realized; 25Δ risk-reversal -4.5 — puts pricier (downside bid).

IV term structure, days → vol

25Δ risk reversal · call IV − put IV

Short · 1d expiry−7 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

~30d · 35d expiry−4.5 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

Tier 2 — Alts & reference-anchored

Spot$104

1w0%

RV 30d54.9

IV 30d52.7

25Δ RR+1.6

SOL gained 0.0% on the week; 30-day realized cooled 60→55. Own-book 30-day implied at 53 is roughly balanced against realized; 25Δ risk-reversal +1.6 — calls pricier (upside bid).

IV term structure, days → vol

25Δ risk reversal · call IV − put IV

Short · 1d expiry−3.1 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

~30d · 35d expiry+1.6 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

Spot$1.32

1w+1%

RV 30d57.3

IV 30d55.4

25Δ RR+1.4

XRP gained 1.0% on the week; 30-day realized cooled 68→57. Own-book 30-day implied at 55 is roughly balanced against realized; 25Δ risk-reversal near flat (+1.4) — calls and puts level.

IV term structure, days → vol

25Δ risk reversal · call IV − put IV

Short · 1d expiry+0.1 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

~30d · 35d expiry+1.4 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

Spot$4,029

1w−3.1%

RV 30d15.6

IV 30d18.9

25Δ RR+0.9

XAUT fell 3.1% on the week; 30-day realized held near 16. Own-book 30-day implied at 19 is roughly balanced against realized; 25Δ risk-reversal near flat (+0.9) — calls and puts level.

IV term structure, days → vol

25Δ risk reversal · call IV − put IV

Short · 1d expiry−1.6 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

~30d · 35d expiry+0.9 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

Tier 3 — Tokenized RWAs & pre-IPO

Spot$149

1w+2.1%

RV 30d56.9

IV 30d70.2

25Δ RR−11

SPCX gained 2.1% on the week; 30-day realized pushed up 47→57. Own-book 7-day implied at 70 screens 8 vols under realized — vol is cheap to own here; 25Δ risk-reversal -11.0 — puts pricier (downside bid).

IV term structure, days → vol

25Δ risk reversal · call IV − put IV

Short · 3d expiry−9 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

~30d · 5d expiry−11 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

Last week, graded

Tagged alt vol the cheapest to own — SOL 30d realized ~60 into Jun 14Realized eased to 55 (spot +0.0%) — vol gave back.

Miss

Flagged XRP realized elevated (~68) with price on the back footRealized eased to 57 (spot +1.0%) — vol gave back.

Miss

ETH realized ~54 led the majors; gamma seen underpricedRealized held ~ 55 (spot -0.7%) — modest carry.

Partial

BTC the calmest major (~36 realized) — looked for vol to stay anchoredRealized held ~ 32 (spot +0.3%) — broadly as flagged.

Hit

Tokenised gold expected to stay subdued (~17 realized)Realized held ~ 16 (spot -3.1%) — broadly as flagged.

Hit

Methodology & sources

ClickHouse index_candles_1d + index_price (RV, cone, spot) through 2026-10-23 close · ClickOptions own book via option_last_books (implied vol, BS model r=4.0%) as-of 2026-10-23 09:15 UTC · RV-only where no IV solves

Vol Value Scores compare ClickOptions' own-book implied volatility to trailing realized volatility on the same underlying — a relative-value read, not a forecast.