Volreport for Week 41, 2026 (Oct 5 – Oct 9)

All reports

XRP screens cheapest to own this week (IV−RV -38), while SPCX is the most expensive (+28). 25Δ risk-reversals stay negative on ETH, BTC, SPCX — the market paying up for downside, leaving calls the cheaper wing. Tokenised gold (XAUT) prints its own ~19 vol — a calm, low-beta anchor against the crypto names.

Vol Value Scoreboard

IV(30d) − RV(30d), ranked cheapest → most expensive

Asset	Spot	1w %	RV 30d	IV 30d	IV − RV	Verdict
ETHEther	$2,504	−6.2%	55.5	46.2	−9.3	Cheap
BTCBitcoin	$82,574	−2.3%	36.0	38.7	+2.7	Fair
XRPXRP	$1.4	−5.6%	91.8	53.5	−38.3	Cheap
SOLSolana	$110	−6.9%	57.7	52.7	−5.0	Cheap
XAUTTether Gold	$4,185	+1%	19.1	19.4	+0.3	Fair
SPCXSpaceX	$167	+4.9%	42.7	73.7	+28.0	Expensive

Cheapest of the week

Realized-vol cone vs current implied

XRPBuy of the week

Realized-vol percentile envelope across trailing windows · current implied vol overlaid · XRP · liquid alt

Realized range (min–max)Middle half (p25–p75)Median realizedImplied today

Implied (53.5) sits −1.8 vols vs the 30-day realized median (55.3) — reads roughly fair value.

Reading the tiers below: the 25Δ Risk Reversal

A 25Δ risk reversal compares two equally out-of-the-money options — a 25-delta call and a 25-delta put — and takes the difference in their implied vol. A negative number means puts cost more: the market is paying up for downside protection, and calls are the relatively cheap wing. A positive number is the reverse — calls cost more, puts are the cheap wing.

Tier 1 — Liquid listed options

Spot$2,504

1w−6.2%

RV 30d55.5

IV 30d46.2

25Δ RR−2.6

ETH fell 6.2% on the week; 30-day realized held near 56. Own-book 30-day implied at 46 screens 9 vols under realized — vol is cheap to own here; 25Δ risk-reversal -2.6 — puts pricier (downside bid).

IV term structure, days → vol

25Δ risk reversal · call IV − put IV

Short · 1d expiry−5.9 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

~30d · 21d expiry−2.6 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

Spot$82,574

1w−2.3%

RV 30d36.0

IV 30d38.7

25Δ RR−5.8

BTC fell 2.3% on the week; 30-day realized held near 36. Own-book 30-day implied at 39 is roughly balanced against realized; 25Δ risk-reversal -5.8 — puts pricier (downside bid).

IV term structure, days → vol

25Δ risk reversal · call IV − put IV

Short · 1d expiry−3.1 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

~30d · 21d expiry−5.8 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

Tier 2 — Alts & reference-anchored

Spot$1.4

1w−5.6%

RV 30d91.8

IV 30d53.5

25Δ RR+5.5

XRP fell 5.6% on the week; 30-day realized cooled 95→92. Own-book 30-day implied at 54 screens 38 vols under realized — vol is cheap to own here; 25Δ risk-reversal +5.5 — calls pricier (upside bid).

IV term structure, days → vol

25Δ risk reversal · call IV − put IV

Short · 1d expiry+1.8 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

~30d · 21d expiry+5.5 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

Spot$110

1w−6.9%

RV 30d57.7

IV 30d52.7

25Δ RR+2.3

SOL fell 6.9% on the week; 30-day realized cooled 78→58. Own-book 30-day implied at 53 screens 5 vols under realized — vol is cheap to own here; 25Δ risk-reversal +2.3 — calls pricier (upside bid).

IV term structure, days → vol

25Δ risk reversal · call IV − put IV

Short · 1d expiry−3.4 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

~30d · 21d expiry+2.3 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

Spot$4,185

1w+1%

RV 30d19.1

IV 30d19.4

25Δ RR+0.8

XAUT gained 1.0% on the week; 30-day realized held near 19. Own-book 30-day implied at 19 is roughly balanced against realized; 25Δ risk-reversal near flat (+0.8) — calls and puts level.

IV term structure, days → vol

25Δ risk reversal · call IV − put IV

Short · 1d expiry−0.8 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

~30d · 21d expiry+0.8 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

Tier 3 — Tokenized RWAs & pre-IPO

Spot$167

1w+4.9%

RV 30d42.7

IV 30d73.7

25Δ RR−11.3

SPCX gained 4.9% on the week; 30-day realized held near 43. Own-book 7-day implied at 74 sits +28 over realized — more expensive, leans toward selling premium; 25Δ risk-reversal -11.3 — puts pricier (downside bid).

IV term structure, days → vol

25Δ risk reversal · call IV − put IV

Short · 3d expiry−9.1 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

~30d · 5d expiry−11.3 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

Last week, graded

Tagged alt vol the cheapest to own — SOL 30d realized ~78 into Jun 14Realized eased to 58 (spot -6.9%) — vol gave back.

Miss

Flagged XRP realized elevated (~95) with price on the back footRealized eased to 92 (spot -5.6%) — vol gave back.

Miss

ETH realized ~55 led the majors; gamma seen underpricedRealized held ~ 56 (spot -6.2%) — modest carry.

Partial

BTC the calmest major (~38 realized) — looked for vol to stay anchoredRealized held ~ 36 (spot -2.3%) — broadly as flagged.

Hit

Tokenised gold expected to stay subdued (~20 realized)Realized held ~ 19 (spot +1.0%) — broadly as flagged.

Hit

Methodology & sources

ClickHouse index_candles_1d + index_price (RV, cone, spot) through 2026-10-09 close · ClickOptions own book via option_last_books (implied vol, BS model r=4.0%) as-of 2026-10-09 09:15 UTC · RV-only where no IV solves

Vol Value Scores compare ClickOptions' own-book implied volatility to trailing realized volatility on the same underlying — a relative-value read, not a forecast.