Volreport for Week 40, 2026 (Sep 28 – Oct 2)

All reports

XRP screens cheapest to own this week (IV−RV -35), while SPCX is the most expensive (+34). 25Δ risk-reversals stay negative on BTC, SPCX — the market paying up for downside, leaving calls the cheaper wing. Tokenised gold (XAUT) prints its own ~21 vol — a calm, low-beta anchor against the crypto names.

Vol Value Scoreboard

IV(30d) − RV(30d), ranked cheapest → most expensive

Asset	Spot	1w %	RV 30d	IV 30d	IV − RV	Verdict
ETHEther	$2,752	+2.2%	54.1	46.6	−7.5	Cheap
BTCBitcoin	$86,223	+2.5%	36.8	36.8	0.0	Fair
XRPXRP	$1.54	−1.9%	93.6	58.5	−35.1	Cheap
SOLSolana	$122	−0.1%	77.6	49.9	−27.7	Cheap
XAUTTether Gold	$4,185	−2.3%	20.1	21.0	+3.6	Fair
SPCXSpaceX	$150	+0.5%	42.5	76.0	+33.5	Expensive

Cheapest of the week

Realized-vol cone vs current implied

XRPBuy of the week

Realized-vol percentile envelope across trailing windows · current implied vol overlaid · XRP · liquid alt

Realized range (min–max)Middle half (p25–p75)Median realizedImplied today

Implied (58.5) sits +3.6 vols vs the 30-day realized median (54.9) — reads expensive to own.

Reading the tiers below: the 25Δ Risk Reversal

A 25Δ risk reversal compares two equally out-of-the-money options — a 25-delta call and a 25-delta put — and takes the difference in their implied vol. A negative number means puts cost more: the market is paying up for downside protection, and calls are the relatively cheap wing. A positive number is the reverse — calls cost more, puts are the cheap wing.

Tier 1 — Liquid listed options

Spot$2,752

1w+2.2%

RV 30d54.1

IV 30d46.6

25Δ RR−0.4

ETH gained 2.2% on the week; 30-day realized cooled 57→54. Own-book 30-day implied at 47 screens 8 vols under realized — vol is cheap to own here; 25Δ risk-reversal near flat (-0.4) — calls and puts level.

IV term structure, days → vol

25Δ risk reversal · call IV − put IV

Short · 1d expiry+9.1 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

~30d · 28d expiry−0.4 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

Spot$86,223

1w+2.5%

RV 30d36.8

IV 30d36.8

25Δ RR−10.5

BTC gained 2.5% on the week; 30-day realized cooled 39→37. Own-book 30-day implied at 37 is roughly balanced against realized; 25Δ risk-reversal -10.5 — puts pricier (downside bid).

IV term structure, days → vol

25Δ risk reversal · call IV − put IV

Short · 1d expiry+3.9 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

~30d · 28d expiry−10.5 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

Tier 2 — Alts & reference-anchored

Spot$1.54

1w−1.9%

RV 30d93.6

IV 30d58.5

25Δ RR+7.1

XRP fell 1.9% on the week; 30-day realized cooled 103→94. Own-book 30-day implied at 58 screens 35 vols under realized — vol is cheap to own here; 25Δ risk-reversal +7.1 — calls pricier (upside bid).

IV term structure, days → vol

25Δ risk reversal · call IV − put IV

Short · 1d expiry+14.9 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

~30d · 28d expiry+7.1 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

Spot$122

1w−0.1%

RV 30d77.6

IV 30d49.9

25Δ RR+1.7

SOL fell 0.1% on the week; 30-day realized cooled 81→78. Own-book 30-day implied at 50 screens 28 vols under realized — vol is cheap to own here; 25Δ risk-reversal +1.7 — calls pricier (upside bid).

IV term structure, days → vol

25Δ risk reversal · call IV − put IV

Short · 1d expiry+10 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

~30d · 28d expiry+1.7 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

Spot$4,185

1w−2.3%

RV 30d20.1

IV 30d21.0

25Δ RR+0.7

XAUT fell 2.3% on the week; 30-day realized held near 20. Own-book 7-day implied at 21 is roughly balanced against realized; 25Δ risk-reversal near flat (+0.7) — calls and puts level.

IV term structure, days → vol

25Δ risk reversal · call IV − put IV

Short · 1d expiry−1.2 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

~30d · 7d expiry+0.7 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

Tier 3 — Tokenized RWAs & pre-IPO

Spot$150

1w+0.5%

RV 30d42.5

IV 30d76.0

25Δ RR−5.2

SPCX gained 0.5% on the week; 30-day realized held near 42. Own-book 30-day implied at 76 sits +34 over realized — more expensive, leans toward selling premium; 25Δ risk-reversal -5.2 — puts pricier (downside bid).

IV term structure, days → vol

25Δ risk reversal · call IV − put IV

Short · 3d expiry−21.4 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

~30d · 31d expiry−5.2 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

Last week, graded

Tagged alt vol the cheapest to own — SOL 30d realized ~81 into Jun 14Realized eased to 78 (spot -0.1%) — vol gave back.

Miss

Flagged XRP realized elevated (~103) with price on the back footRealized eased to 94 (spot -1.9%) — vol gave back.

Miss

ETH realized ~57 led the majors; gamma seen underpricedRealized eased to 54 (spot +2.2%) — vol gave back.

Miss

BTC the calmest major (~39 realized) — looked for vol to stay anchoredRealized held ~ 37 (spot +2.5%) — broadly as flagged.

Hit

Tokenised gold expected to stay subdued (~22 realized)Realized held ~ 20 (spot -2.3%) — broadly as flagged.

Hit

Methodology & sources

ClickHouse index_candles_1d + index_price (RV, cone, spot) through 2026-10-02 close · ClickOptions own book via option_last_books (implied vol, BS model r=4.0%) as-of 2026-10-02 09:15 UTC · RV-only where no IV solves

Vol Value Scores compare ClickOptions' own-book implied volatility to trailing realized volatility on the same underlying — a relative-value read, not a forecast.