Volreport for Week 38, 2026 (Sep 14 – Sep 18)

All reports

XRP screens cheapest to own this week (IV−RV -84), while SPCX is the most expensive (+98). 25Δ risk-reversals stay negative on SPCX — the market paying up for downside, leaving calls the cheaper wing. Tokenised gold (XAUT) prints its own ~23 vol — a calm, low-beta anchor against the crypto names.

Vol Value Scoreboard

IV(30d) − RV(30d), ranked cheapest → most expensive

Asset	Spot	1w %	RV 30d	IV 30d	IV − RV	Verdict
BTCBitcoin	$78,373	+1.5%	41.0	23.1	−17.9	Cheap
ETHEther	$2,515	0%	58.0	46.9	−11.1	Cheap
XRPXRP	$1.34	−1.4%	140.1	56.3	−83.8	Cheap
SOLSolana	$106	+3.7%	88.0	50.3	−37.7	Cheap
XAUTTether Gold	$4,392	+1%	22.3	22.9	+0.6	Fair
SPCXSpaceX	$156	+3.7%	44.5	134.6	+98.1	Expensive

Cheapest of the week

Realized-vol cone vs current implied

XRPBuy of the week

Realized-vol percentile envelope across trailing windows · current implied vol overlaid · XRP · liquid alt

Realized range (min–max)Middle half (p25–p75)Median realizedImplied today

Implied (56.3) sits +6.4 vols vs the 30-day realized median (49.9) — reads expensive to own.

Reading the tiers below: the 25Δ Risk Reversal

A 25Δ risk reversal compares two equally out-of-the-money options — a 25-delta call and a 25-delta put — and takes the difference in their implied vol. A negative number means puts cost more: the market is paying up for downside protection, and calls are the relatively cheap wing. A positive number is the reverse — calls cost more, puts are the cheap wing.

Tier 1 — Liquid listed options

Spot$78,373

1w+1.5%

RV 30d41.0

IV 30d23.1

25Δ RR−0.7

BTC gained 1.5% on the week; 30-day realized held near 41. Own-book 30-day implied at 23 screens 18 vols under realized — vol is cheap to own here; 25Δ risk-reversal near flat (-0.7) — calls and puts level.

IV term structure, days → vol

25Δ risk reversal · call IV − put IV

Short · 1d expiry+3.5 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

~30d · 21d expiry−0.7 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

Spot$2,515

1w0%

RV 30d58.0

IV 30d46.9

25Δ RR+1.3

ETH gained 0.0% on the week; 30-day realized cooled 64→58. Own-book 30-day implied at 47 screens 11 vols under realized — vol is cheap to own here; 25Δ risk-reversal near flat (+1.3) — calls and puts level.

IV term structure, days → vol

25Δ risk reversal · call IV − put IV

Short · 1d expiry+9.2 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

~30d · 21d expiry+1.3 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

Tier 2 — Alts & reference-anchored

Spot$1.34

1w−1.4%

RV 30d140.1

IV 30d56.3

25Δ RR+0.9

XRP fell 1.4% on the week; 30-day realized pushed up 128→140. Own-book 30-day implied at 56 screens 84 vols under realized — vol is cheap to own here; 25Δ risk-reversal near flat (+0.9) — calls and puts level.

IV term structure, days → vol

25Δ risk reversal · call IV − put IV

Short · 1d expiry+10.9 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

~30d · 42d expiry+0.9 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

Spot$106

1w+3.7%

RV 30d88.0

IV 30d50.3

25Δ RR+2.4

SOL gained 3.7% on the week; 30-day realized held near 88. Own-book 30-day implied at 50 screens 38 vols under realized — vol is cheap to own here; 25Δ risk-reversal +2.4 — calls pricier (upside bid).

IV term structure, days → vol

25Δ risk reversal · call IV − put IV

Short · 1d expiry+11.6 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

~30d · 42d expiry+2.4 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

Spot$4,392

1w+1%

RV 30d22.3

IV 30d22.9

25Δ RR+1.1

XAUT gained 1.0% on the week; 30-day realized held near 22. Own-book 30-day implied at 23 is roughly balanced against realized; 25Δ risk-reversal near flat (+1.1) — calls and puts level.

IV term structure, days → vol

25Δ risk reversal · call IV − put IV

Short · 1d expiry+5.5 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

~30d · 21d expiry+1.1 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

Tier 3 — Tokenized RWAs & pre-IPO

Spot$156

1w+3.7%

RV 30d44.5

IV 30d134.6

25Δ RR−27

SPCX gained 3.7% on the week; 30-day realized cooled 51→44. Own-book 7-day implied at 135 sits +98 over realized — more expensive, leans toward selling premium; 25Δ risk-reversal -27.0 — puts pricier (downside bid).

IV term structure, days → vol

25Δ risk reversal · call IV − put IV

Short · 3d expiry−33.4 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

~30d · 4d expiry−27 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

Last week, graded

Tagged alt vol the cheapest to own — SOL 30d realized ~89 into Jun 14Realized held ~ 88 (spot +3.7%) — modest carry.

Partial

Flagged XRP realized elevated (~128) with price on the back footRealized firmed to 140 (spot -1.4%) — owning vol paid.

Hit

ETH realized ~64 led the majors; gamma seen underpricedRealized eased to 58 (spot -0.0%) — vol gave back.

Miss

BTC the calmest major (~42 realized) — looked for vol to stay anchoredRealized held ~ 41 (spot +1.5%) — broadly as flagged.

Hit

Tokenised gold expected to stay subdued (~22 realized)Realized held ~ 22 (spot +1.0%) — broadly as flagged.

Hit

Methodology & sources

ClickHouse index_candles_1d + index_price (RV, cone, spot) through 2026-09-18 close · ClickOptions own book via option_last_books (implied vol, BS model r=4.0%) as-of 2026-09-18 09:15 UTC · RV-only where no IV solves

Vol Value Scores compare ClickOptions' own-book implied volatility to trailing realized volatility on the same underlying — a relative-value read, not a forecast.