Volreport for Week 33, 2026 (Aug 10 – Aug 14)

All reports

SOL screens cheapest to own this week (IV−RV -5), while SPCX is the most expensive (+52). 25Δ risk-reversals stay negative on BTC, ETH, XRP, SPCX — the market paying up for downside, leaving calls the cheaper wing. Tokenised gold (XAUT) prints its own ~22 vol — a calm, low-beta anchor against the crypto names.

Vol Value Scoreboard

IV(30d) − RV(30d), ranked cheapest → most expensive

Asset	Spot	1w %	RV 30d	IV 30d	IV − RV	Verdict
BTCBitcoin	$62,768	−3.3%	26.3	32.1	+5.8	Fair
ETHEther	$1,872	−2.2%	36.1	44.4	+8.3	Expensive
SOLSolana	$75	+2.4%	34.7	29.7	−5.0	Cheap
XAUTTether Gold	$4,367	+0.8%	19.1	22.0	+2.9	Fair
XRPXRP	$1	−1.6%	32.2	43.5	+11.3	Expensive
SPCXSpaceX	$143	+6.9%	97.4	128.8	+51.8	Expensive

Cheapest of the week

Realized-vol cone vs current implied

SOLBuy of the week

Realized-vol percentile envelope across trailing windows · current implied vol overlaid · Solana · liquid alt

Realized range (min–max)Middle half (p25–p75)Median realizedImplied today

Implied (29.7) sits −36.8 vols vs the 30-day realized median (66.5) — reads cheap to own.

Reading the tiers below: the 25Δ Risk Reversal

A 25Δ risk reversal compares two equally out-of-the-money options — a 25-delta call and a 25-delta put — and takes the difference in their implied vol. A negative number means puts cost more: the market is paying up for downside protection, and calls are the relatively cheap wing. A positive number is the reverse — calls cost more, puts are the cheap wing.

Tier 1 — Liquid listed options

Spot$62,768

1w−3.3%

RV 30d26.3

IV 30d32.1

25Δ RR−4.1

BTC fell 3.3% on the week; 30-day realized cooled 28→26. Own-book 30-day implied at 32 is roughly balanced against realized; 25Δ risk-reversal -4.1 — puts pricier (downside bid).

IV term structure, days → vol

25Δ risk reversal · call IV − put IV

Short · 1d expiry−5.5 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

~30d · 21d expiry−4.1 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

Spot$1,872

1w−2.2%

RV 30d36.1

IV 30d44.4

25Δ RR−4

ETH fell 2.2% on the week; 30-day realized cooled 40→36. Own-book 30-day implied at 44 sits +8 over realized — more expensive, leans toward selling premium; 25Δ risk-reversal -4.0 — puts pricier (downside bid).

IV term structure, days → vol

25Δ risk reversal · call IV − put IV

Short · 1d expiry−6.4 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

~30d · 21d expiry−4 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

Tier 2 — Alts & reference-anchored

Spot$75

1w+2.4%

RV 30d34.7

IV 30d29.7

25Δ RR−0.6

SOL gained 2.4% on the week; 30-day realized cooled 37→35. Own-book 30-day implied at 30 screens 5 vols under realized — vol is cheap to own here; 25Δ risk-reversal near flat (-0.6) — calls and puts level.

IV term structure, days → vol

25Δ risk reversal · call IV − put IV

Short · 1d expiry−5.3 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

~30d · 42d expiry−0.6 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

Spot$4,367

1w+0.8%

RV 30d19.1

IV 30d22.0

25Δ RR+1.8

XAUT gained 0.8% on the week; 30-day realized held near 19. Own-book 30-day implied at 22 is roughly balanced against realized; 25Δ risk-reversal +1.8 — calls pricier (upside bid).

IV term structure, days → vol

25Δ risk reversal · call IV − put IV

Short · 1d expiry−0.2 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

~30d · 21d expiry+1.8 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

Spot$1

1w−1.6%

RV 30d32.2

IV 30d43.5

25Δ RR−3.7

XRP fell 1.6% on the week; 30-day realized held near 32. Own-book 30-day implied at 44 sits +11 over realized — more expensive, leans toward selling premium; 25Δ risk-reversal -3.7 — puts pricier (downside bid).

IV term structure, days → vol

25Δ risk reversal · call IV − put IV

Short · 1d expiry−5 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

~30d · 42d expiry−3.7 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

Tier 3 — Tokenized RWAs & pre-IPO

Spot$143

1w+6.9%

RV 30d97.4

IV 30d128.8

25Δ RR−25.2

SPCX gained 6.9% on the week; 30-day realized pushed up 93→97. Own-book 7-day implied at 129 sits +52 over realized — more expensive, leans toward selling premium; 25Δ risk-reversal -25.2 — puts pricier (downside bid).

IV term structure, days → vol

25Δ risk reversal · call IV − put IV

Short · 3d expiry−19.8 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

~30d · 4d expiry−25.2 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

Last week, graded

Tagged alt vol the cheapest to own — SOL 30d realized ~37 into Jun 14Realized eased to 35 (spot +2.4%) — vol gave back.

Miss

Flagged XRP realized elevated (~34) with price on the back footRealized held ~ 32 (spot -1.6%) — modest carry.

Partial

ETH realized ~40 led the majors; gamma seen underpricedRealized eased to 36 (spot -2.2%) — vol gave back.

Miss

BTC the calmest major (~28 realized) — looked for vol to stay anchoredRealized held ~ 26 (spot -3.3%) — broadly as flagged.

Hit

Tokenised gold expected to stay subdued (~20 realized)Realized held ~ 19 (spot +0.8%) — broadly as flagged.

Hit

Methodology & sources

ClickHouse index_candles_1d + index_price (RV, cone, spot) through 2026-08-14 close · ClickOptions own book via option_last_books (implied vol, BS model r=4.0%) as-of 2026-08-14 13:28 UTC · RV-only where no IV solves

Vol Value Scores compare ClickOptions' own-book implied volatility to trailing realized volatility on the same underlying — a relative-value read, not a forecast.