Volreport for Week 32, 2026 (Aug 3 – Aug 7)

All reports

BTC screens cheapest to own this week (IV−RV +2), while SPCX is the most expensive (+30). 25Δ risk-reversals stay negative on BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, SPCX — the market paying up for downside, leaving calls the cheaper wing. Tokenised gold (XAUT) prints its own ~21 vol — a calm, low-beta anchor against the crypto names.

Vol Value Scoreboard

IV(30d) − RV(30d), ranked cheapest → most expensive

Asset	Spot	1w %	RV 30d	IV 30d	IV − RV	Verdict
BTCBitcoin	$65,186	+3.6%	28.2	30.0	+1.8	Fair
ETHEther	$1,930	+3.6%	39.6	41.9	+2.3	Fair
XAUTTether Gold	$4,297	+6.3%	19.2	21.0	+1.8	Fair
SOLSolana	$74	+1.5%	36.5	39.5	+3.0	Fair
XRPXRP	$1.04	−2.2%	34.3	39.0	+4.7	Fair
SPCXSpaceX	$115	+6.9%	90.2	142.7	+29.8	Expensive

Cheapest of the week

Realized-vol cone vs current implied

BTCBuy of the week

Realized-vol percentile envelope across trailing windows · current implied vol overlaid · Bitcoin · BTC index + listed options

Realized range (min–max)Middle half (p25–p75)Median realizedImplied today

Implied (30.0) sits −15.2 vols vs the 30-day realized median (45.2) — reads cheap to own.

Reading the tiers below: the 25Δ Risk Reversal

A 25Δ risk reversal compares two equally out-of-the-money options — a 25-delta call and a 25-delta put — and takes the difference in their implied vol. A negative number means puts cost more: the market is paying up for downside protection, and calls are the relatively cheap wing. A positive number is the reverse — calls cost more, puts are the cheap wing.

Tier 1 — Liquid listed options

Spot$65,186

1w+3.6%

RV 30d28.2

IV 30d30.0

25Δ RR−4.5

BTC gained 3.6% on the week; 30-day realized cooled 33→28. Own-book 30-day implied at 30 is roughly balanced against realized; 25Δ risk-reversal -4.5 — puts pricier (downside bid).

IV term structure, days → vol

25Δ risk reversal · call IV − put IV

Short · 1d expiry−4.5 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

~30d · 21d expiry−4.5 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

Spot$1,930

1w+3.6%

RV 30d39.6

IV 30d41.9

25Δ RR−3.3

ETH gained 3.6% on the week; 30-day realized cooled 45→40. Own-book 30-day implied at 42 is roughly balanced against realized; 25Δ risk-reversal -3.3 — puts pricier (downside bid).

IV term structure, days → vol

25Δ risk reversal · call IV − put IV

Short · 1d expiry−1.7 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

~30d · 21d expiry−3.3 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

Tier 2 — Alts & reference-anchored

Spot$4,297

1w+6.3%

RV 30d19.2

IV 30d21.0

25Δ RR+1.5

XAUT gained 6.3% on the week; 30-day realized held near 19. Own-book 30-day implied at 21 is roughly balanced against realized; 25Δ risk-reversal +1.5 — calls pricier (upside bid).

IV term structure, days → vol

25Δ risk reversal · call IV − put IV

Short · 1d expiry−1 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

~30d · 21d expiry+1.5 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

Spot$74

1w+1.5%

RV 30d36.5

IV 30d39.5

25Δ RR−3.4

SOL gained 1.5% on the week; 30-day realized cooled 43→36. Own-book 30-day implied at 40 is roughly balanced against realized; 25Δ risk-reversal -3.4 — puts pricier (downside bid).

IV term structure, days → vol

25Δ risk reversal · call IV − put IV

Short · 1d expiry−3.8 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

~30d · 21d expiry−3.4 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

Spot$1.04

1w−2.2%

RV 30d34.3

IV 30d39.0

25Δ RR−2.4

XRP fell 2.2% on the week; 30-day realized cooled 42→34. Own-book 30-day implied at 39 is roughly balanced against realized; 25Δ risk-reversal -2.4 — puts pricier (downside bid).

IV term structure, days → vol

25Δ risk reversal · call IV − put IV

Short · 1d expiry−3 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

~30d · 21d expiry−2.4 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

Tier 3 — Tokenized RWAs & pre-IPO

Spot$115

1w+6.9%

RV 30d90.2

IV 30d142.7

25Δ RR−28.9

SPCX gained 6.9% on the week; 30-day realized pushed up 77→90. Own-book 7-day implied at 143 sits +30 over realized — more expensive, leans toward selling premium; 25Δ risk-reversal -28.9 — puts pricier (downside bid).

IV term structure, days → vol

25Δ risk reversal · call IV − put IV

Short · 3d expiry−32.1 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

~30d · 4d expiry−28.9 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

Last week, graded

Tagged alt vol the cheapest to own — SOL 30d realized ~43 into Jun 14Realized eased to 36 (spot +1.5%) — vol gave back.

Miss

Flagged XRP realized elevated (~42) with price on the back footRealized eased to 34 (spot -2.2%) — vol gave back.

Miss

ETH realized ~45 led the majors; gamma seen underpricedRealized eased to 40 (spot +3.6%) — vol gave back.

Miss

BTC the calmest major (~33 realized) — looked for vol to stay anchoredRealized held ~ 28 (spot +3.6%) — broadly as flagged.

Hit

Tokenised gold expected to stay subdued (~19 realized)Realized held ~ 19 (spot +6.3%) — broadly as flagged.

Hit

Methodology & sources

ClickHouse index_candles_1d + index_price (RV, cone, spot) through 2026-08-07 close · ClickOptions own book via option_last_books (implied vol, BS model r=4.0%) as-of 2026-08-07 12:19 UTC · RV-only where no IV solves

Vol Value Scores compare ClickOptions' own-book implied volatility to trailing realized volatility on the same underlying — a relative-value read, not a forecast.