Volreport for Week 30, 2026 (Jul 20 – Jul 24)

All reports

SOL screens cheapest to own this week (IV−RV -7), while SPCX is the most expensive (+10). 25Δ risk-reversals stay negative on SOL, BTC, ETH, XRP — the market paying up for downside, leaving calls the cheaper wing. Tokenised gold (XAUT) prints its own ~16 vol — a calm, low-beta anchor against the crypto names.

Vol Value Scoreboard

IV(30d) − RV(30d), ranked cheapest → most expensive

Asset	Spot	1w %	RV 30d	IV 30d	IV − RV	Verdict
BTCBitcoin	$64,144	+0.3%	38.5	33.4	−5.1	Cheap
ETHEther	$1,856	+0.8%	50.7	46.8	−3.9	Cheap
SOLSolana	$74	−1.1%	57.7	50.4	−7.3	Cheap
XAUTTether Gold	$4,056	+1.2%	21.1	15.8	−5.3	Cheap
XRPXRP	$1.09	+0.2%	47.9	49.1	+1.2	Fair
SPCXSpaceX	$114	−7.9%	78.5	88.3	+9.8	Expensive

Cheapest of the week

Realized-vol cone vs current implied

SOLBuy of the week

Realized-vol percentile envelope across trailing windows · current implied vol overlaid · Solana · liquid alt

Realized range (min–max)Middle half (p25–p75)Median realizedImplied today

Implied (50.4) sits −18.4 vols vs the 30-day realized median (68.8) — reads cheap to own.

Reading the tiers below: the 25Δ Risk Reversal

A 25Δ risk reversal compares two equally out-of-the-money options — a 25-delta call and a 25-delta put — and takes the difference in their implied vol. A negative number means puts cost more: the market is paying up for downside protection, and calls are the relatively cheap wing. A positive number is the reverse — calls cost more, puts are the cheap wing.

Tier 1 — Liquid listed options

Spot$64,144

1w+0.3%

RV 30d38.5

IV 30d33.4

25Δ RR−4.7

BTC gained 0.3% on the week; 30-day realized cooled 43→38. Own-book 30-day implied at 33 screens 5 vols under realized — vol is cheap to own here; 25Δ risk-reversal -4.7 — puts pricier (downside bid).

IV term structure, days → vol

25Δ risk reversal · call IV − put IV

Short · 1d expiry−5.8 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

~30d · 35d expiry−4.7 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

Spot$1,856

1w+0.8%

RV 30d50.7

IV 30d46.8

25Δ RR−3.5

ETH gained 0.8% on the week; 30-day realized cooled 57→51. Own-book 30-day implied at 47 screens 4 vols under realized — vol is cheap to own here; 25Δ risk-reversal -3.5 — puts pricier (downside bid).

IV term structure, days → vol

25Δ risk reversal · call IV − put IV

Short · 1d expiry−4.7 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

~30d · 35d expiry−3.5 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

Tier 2 — Alts & reference-anchored

Spot$74

1w−1.1%

RV 30d57.7

IV 30d50.4

25Δ RR−5.1

SOL fell 1.1% on the week; 30-day realized cooled 66→58. Own-book 30-day implied at 50 screens 7 vols under realized — vol is cheap to own here; 25Δ risk-reversal -5.1 — puts pricier (downside bid).

IV term structure, days → vol

25Δ risk reversal · call IV − put IV

Short · 1d expiry−7.9 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

~30d · 35d expiry−5.1 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

Spot$4,056

1w+1.2%

RV 30d21.1

IV 30d15.8

25Δ RR+0.2

XAUT gained 1.2% on the week; 30-day realized cooled 24→21. Own-book 30-day implied at 16 screens 5 vols under realized — vol is cheap to own here; 25Δ risk-reversal near flat (+0.2) — calls and puts level.

IV term structure, days → vol

25Δ risk reversal · call IV − put IV

Short · 1d expiry−0.7 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

~30d · 35d expiry+0.2 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

Spot$1.09

1w+0.2%

RV 30d47.9

IV 30d49.1

25Δ RR−3.8

XRP gained 0.2% on the week; 30-day realized cooled 50→48. Own-book 30-day implied at 49 is roughly balanced against realized; 25Δ risk-reversal -3.8 — puts pricier (downside bid).

IV term structure, days → vol

25Δ risk reversal · call IV − put IV

Short · 1d expiry−8.2 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

~30d · 35d expiry−3.8 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

Tier 3 — Tokenized RWAs & pre-IPO

Spot$114

1w−7.9%

RV 30d78.5

IV 30d88.3

25Δ RR0

SPCX fell 7.9% on the week; 30-day realized cooled 89→78. Own-book 30-day implied at 88 sits +10 over realized — more expensive, leans toward selling premium; 25Δ risk-reversal near flat (+0.0) — calls and puts level.

IV term structure, days → vol

25Δ risk reversal · call IV − put IV

Short · 3d expiry−5.9 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

~30d · 38d expiry0 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

Last week, graded

Tagged alt vol the cheapest to own — SOL 30d realized ~66 into Jun 14Realized eased to 58 (spot -1.1%) — vol gave back.

Miss

Flagged XRP realized elevated (~50) with price on the back footRealized eased to 48 (spot +0.2%) — vol gave back.

Miss

ETH realized ~57 led the majors; gamma seen underpricedRealized eased to 51 (spot +0.8%) — vol gave back.

Miss

BTC the calmest major (~43 realized) — looked for vol to stay anchoredRealized held ~ 38 (spot +0.3%) — broadly as flagged.

Hit

Tokenised gold expected to stay subdued (~24 realized)Realized held ~ 21 (spot +1.2%) — broadly as flagged.

Hit

Methodology & sources

ClickHouse index_candles_1d + index_price (RV, cone, spot) through 2026-07-24 close · ClickOptions own book via option_last_books (implied vol, BS model r=4.0%) as-of 2026-07-24 13:52 UTC · RV-only where no IV solves

Vol Value Scores compare ClickOptions' own-book implied volatility to trailing realized volatility on the same underlying — a relative-value read, not a forecast.