Volreport for Week 29, 2026 (Jul 13 – Jul 17)

All reports

SOL screens cheapest to own this week (IV−RV -13), while XRP is the most expensive (+0). 25Δ risk-reversals stay negative on SOL, ETH, BTC, XAUT, XRP — the market paying up for downside, leaving calls the cheaper wing. Tokenised gold (XAUT) prints its own ~19 vol — a calm, low-beta anchor against the crypto names.

Vol Value Scoreboard

IV(30d) − RV(30d), ranked cheapest → most expensive

Asset	Spot	1w %	RV 30d	IV 30d	IV − RV	Verdict
ETHEther	$1,817	+1.1%	56.2	45.1	−11.1	Cheap
BTCBitcoin	$62,871	−2%	42.4	31.6	−10.8	Cheap
SOLSolana	$74	−5.5%	65.6	52.2	−13.4	Cheap
XAUTTether Gold	$3,974	−3.3%	23.4	19.0	−4.4	Cheap
XRPXRP	$1.07	−2.8%	50.0	50.3	+0.3	Fair
SPCXSpaceX	$127	−13.2%	88.0	81.0	−7.0	Cheap

Cheapest of the week

Realized-vol cone vs current implied

SOLBuy of the week

Realized-vol percentile envelope across trailing windows · current implied vol overlaid · Solana · liquid alt

Realized range (min–max)Middle half (p25–p75)Median realizedImplied today

Implied (52.2) sits −17.2 vols vs the 30-day realized median (69.4) — reads cheap to own.

Reading the tiers below: the 25Δ Risk Reversal

A 25Δ risk reversal compares two equally out-of-the-money options — a 25-delta call and a 25-delta put — and takes the difference in their implied vol. A negative number means puts cost more: the market is paying up for downside protection, and calls are the relatively cheap wing. A positive number is the reverse — calls cost more, puts are the cheap wing.

Tier 1 — Liquid listed options

Spot$1,817

1w+1.1%

RV 30d56.2

IV 30d45.1

25Δ RR−5.2

ETH gained 1.1% on the week; 30-day realized cooled 59→56. Own-book 30-day implied at 45 screens 11 vols under realized — vol is cheap to own here; 25Δ risk-reversal -5.2 — puts pricier (downside bid).

IV term structure, days → vol

25Δ risk reversal · call IV − put IV

Short · 1d expiry−10.7 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

~30d · 21d expiry−5.2 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

Spot$62,871

1w−2%

RV 30d42.4

IV 30d31.6

25Δ RR−4.5

BTC fell 2.0% on the week; 30-day realized held near 42. Own-book 30-day implied at 32 screens 11 vols under realized — vol is cheap to own here; 25Δ risk-reversal -4.5 — puts pricier (downside bid).

IV term structure, days → vol

25Δ risk reversal · call IV − put IV

Short · 1d expiry−6.9 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

~30d · 21d expiry−4.5 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

Tier 2 — Alts & reference-anchored

Spot$74

1w−5.5%

RV 30d65.6

IV 30d52.2

25Δ RR−3.3

SOL fell 5.5% on the week; 30-day realized cooled 70→66. Own-book 30-day implied at 52 screens 13 vols under realized — vol is cheap to own here; 25Δ risk-reversal -3.3 — puts pricier (downside bid).

IV term structure, days → vol

25Δ risk reversal · call IV − put IV

Short · 1d expiry−10.8 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

~30d · 42d expiry−3.3 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

Spot$3,974

1w−3.3%

RV 30d23.4

IV 30d19.0

25Δ RR−1.5

XAUT fell 3.3% on the week; 30-day realized cooled 25→23. Own-book 30-day implied at 19 screens 4 vols under realized — vol is cheap to own here; 25Δ risk-reversal -1.5 — puts pricier (downside bid).

IV term structure, days → vol

25Δ risk reversal · call IV − put IV

Short · 1d expiry−2.9 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

~30d · 21d expiry−1.5 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

Spot$1.07

1w−2.8%

RV 30d50.0

IV 30d50.3

25Δ RR−3.8

XRP fell 2.8% on the week; 30-day realized cooled 56→50. Own-book 30-day implied at 50 is roughly balanced against realized; 25Δ risk-reversal -3.8 — puts pricier (downside bid).

IV term structure, days → vol

25Δ risk reversal · call IV − put IV

Short · 1d expiry−11 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

~30d · 42d expiry−3.8 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

Tier 3 — Tokenized RWAs & pre-IPO

Spot$127

1w−13.2%

RV 30d88.0

IV 30d81.0

25Δ RR+2.5

SPCX fell 13.2% on the week; 30-day realized cooled 107→88. Own-book 30-day implied at 81 screens 7 vols under realized — vol is cheap to own here; 25Δ risk-reversal +2.5 — calls pricier (upside bid).

IV term structure, days → vol

25Δ risk reversal · call IV − put IV

Short · 3d expiry−4.6 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

~30d · 45d expiry+2.5 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

Last week, graded

Tagged alt vol the cheapest to own — SOL 30d realized ~70 into Jun 14Realized eased to 66 (spot -5.5%) — vol gave back.

Miss

Flagged XRP realized elevated (~56) with price on the back footRealized eased to 50 (spot -2.8%) — vol gave back.

Miss

ETH realized ~59 led the majors; gamma seen underpricedRealized eased to 56 (spot +1.1%) — vol gave back.

Miss

BTC the calmest major (~44 realized) — looked for vol to stay anchoredRealized held ~ 42 (spot -2.0%) — broadly as flagged.

Hit

Tokenised gold expected to stay subdued (~25 realized)Realized held ~ 23 (spot -3.3%) — broadly as flagged.

Hit

Methodology & sources

ClickHouse index_candles_1d + index_price (RV, cone, spot) through 2026-07-17 close · ClickOptions own book via option_last_books (implied vol, BS model r=4.0%) as-of 2026-07-17 13:26 UTC · RV-only where no IV solves

Vol Value Scores compare ClickOptions' own-book implied volatility to trailing realized volatility on the same underlying — a relative-value read, not a forecast.