Volreport for Week 28, 2026 (Jul 6 – Jul 10)

All reports

SPCX screens cheapest to own this week (IV−RV -32), while XAUT is the most expensive (-3). 25Δ risk-reversals stay negative on ETH, SOL, BTC, XRP — the market paying up for downside, leaving calls the cheaper wing. Tokenised gold (XAUT) prints its own ~22 vol — a calm, low-beta anchor against the crypto names.

Vol Value Scoreboard

IV(30d) − RV(30d), ranked cheapest → most expensive

Asset	Spot	1w %	RV 30d	IV 30d	IV − RV	Verdict
ETHEther	$1,783	+1.4%	58.3	44.5	−13.8	Cheap
BTCBitcoin	$64,207	+2.6%	43.4	32.7	−10.7	Cheap
SOLSolana	$79	−4%	70.2	56.8	−13.4	Cheap
XRPXRP	$1.11	−2.1%	55.3	48.9	−6.4	Cheap
XAUTTether Gold	$4,090	−1.8%	25.2	22.4	−2.8	Fair
SPCXSpaceX	$150	−5.7%	106.6	74.8	−31.8	Cheap

Cheapest of the week

Realized-vol cone vs current implied

SPCXBuy of the week

Realized-vol percentile envelope across trailing windows · current implied vol overlaid · SpaceX · tokenised pre-IPO

Realized range (min–max)Middle half (p25–p75)Median realizedImplied today

Implied (74.8) sits −35.3 vols vs the 30-day realized median (110.1) — reads cheap to own.

Reading the tiers below: the 25Δ Risk Reversal

A 25Δ risk reversal compares two equally out-of-the-money options — a 25-delta call and a 25-delta put — and takes the difference in their implied vol. A negative number means puts cost more: the market is paying up for downside protection, and calls are the relatively cheap wing. A positive number is the reverse — calls cost more, puts are the cheap wing.

Tier 1 — Liquid listed options

Spot$1,783

1w+1.4%

RV 30d58.3

IV 30d44.5

25Δ RR−5.8

ETH gained 1.4% on the week; 30-day realized cooled 67→58. Own-book 30-day implied at 44 screens 14 vols under realized — vol is cheap to own here; 25Δ risk-reversal -5.8 — puts pricier (downside bid).

IV term structure, days → vol

25Δ risk reversal · call IV − put IV

Short · 1d expiry−3.1 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

~30d · 21d expiry−5.8 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

Spot$64,207

1w+2.6%

RV 30d43.4

IV 30d32.7

25Δ RR−7

BTC gained 2.6% on the week; 30-day realized cooled 49→43. Own-book 30-day implied at 33 screens 11 vols under realized — vol is cheap to own here; 25Δ risk-reversal -7.0 — puts pricier (downside bid).

IV term structure, days → vol

25Δ risk reversal · call IV − put IV

Short · 1d expiry−4.9 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

~30d · 21d expiry−7 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

Tier 2 — Alts & reference-anchored

Spot$79

1w−4%

RV 30d70.2

IV 30d56.8

25Δ RR−3.2

SOL fell 4.0% on the week; 30-day realized cooled 79→70. Own-book 30-day implied at 57 screens 13 vols under realized — vol is cheap to own here; 25Δ risk-reversal -3.2 — puts pricier (downside bid).

IV term structure, days → vol

25Δ risk reversal · call IV − put IV

Short · 1d expiry−2.2 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

~30d · 21d expiry−3.2 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

Spot$1.11

1w−2.1%

RV 30d55.3

IV 30d48.9

25Δ RR−3.4

XRP fell 2.1% on the week; 30-day realized cooled 61→55. Own-book 30-day implied at 49 screens 6 vols under realized — vol is cheap to own here; 25Δ risk-reversal -3.4 — puts pricier (downside bid).

IV term structure, days → vol

25Δ risk reversal · call IV − put IV

Short · 1d expiry−3.2 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

~30d · 21d expiry−3.4 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

Spot$4,090

1w−1.8%

RV 30d25.2

IV 30d22.4

25Δ RR−0.9

XAUT fell 1.8% on the week; 30-day realized held near 25. Own-book 30-day implied at 22 is roughly balanced against realized; 25Δ risk-reversal near flat (-0.9) — calls and puts level.

IV term structure, days → vol

25Δ risk reversal · call IV − put IV

Short · 1d expiry−1.6 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

~30d · 21d expiry−0.9 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

Tier 3 — Tokenized RWAs & pre-IPO

Spot$150

1w−5.7%

RV 30d106.6

IV 30d74.8

25Δ RR+5.4

SPCX fell 5.7% on the week; 30-day realized cooled 114→107. Own-book 30-day implied at 75 screens 32 vols under realized — vol is cheap to own here; 25Δ risk-reversal +5.4 — calls pricier (upside bid).

IV term structure, days → vol

25Δ risk reversal · call IV − put IV

Short · 3d expiry−7.4 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

~30d · 21d expiry+5.4 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

Last week, graded

Tagged alt vol the cheapest to own — SOL 30d realized ~79 into Jun 14Realized eased to 70 (spot -4.0%) — vol gave back.

Miss

Flagged XRP realized elevated (~61) with price on the back footRealized eased to 55 (spot -2.1%) — vol gave back.

Miss

ETH realized ~67 led the majors; gamma seen underpricedRealized eased to 58 (spot +1.4%) — vol gave back.

Miss

BTC the calmest major (~49 realized) — looked for vol to stay anchoredRealized held ~ 43 (spot +2.6%) — broadly as flagged.

Hit

Tokenised gold expected to stay subdued (~27 realized)Realized held ~ 25 (spot -1.8%) — broadly as flagged.

Hit

Methodology & sources

ClickHouse index_candles_1d + index_price (RV, cone, spot) through 2026-07-10 close · ClickOptions own book via option_last_books (implied vol, BS model r=4.0%) as-of 2026-07-10 09:15 UTC · RV-only where no IV solves

Vol Value Scores compare ClickOptions' own-book implied volatility to trailing realized volatility on the same underlying — a relative-value read, not a forecast.