Volreport for Week 27, 2026 (Jun 29 – Jul 3)

All reports

SPCX screens cheapest to own this week (IV−RV -38), while XAUT is the most expensive (-5). 25Δ risk-reversals stay negative on ETH, SOL, BTC, XRP — the market paying up for downside, leaving calls the cheaper wing. Tokenised gold (XAUT) prints its own ~21 vol — a calm, low-beta anchor against the crypto names.

Vol Value Scoreboard

IV(30d) − RV(30d), ranked cheapest → most expensive

Asset	Spot	1w %	RV 30d	IV 30d	IV − RV	Verdict
ETHEther	$1,729	+9.5%	66.9	47.1	−19.8	Cheap
BTCBitcoin	$61,716	+2.7%	48.6	34.1	−14.5	Cheap
SOLSolana	$81	+12.7%	78.7	63.6	−15.1	Cheap
XRPXRP	$1.1	+5.3%	60.3	51.1	−9.2	Cheap
XAUTTether Gold	$4,170	+2.3%	27.1	20.7	−5.0	Cheap
SPCXSpaceX	$160	+5%	114.2	75.9	−38.3	Cheap

Cheapest of the week

Realized-vol cone vs current implied

SPCXBuy of the week

Realized-vol percentile envelope across trailing windows · current implied vol overlaid · SpaceX · tokenised pre-IPO

Realized range (min–max)Middle half (p25–p75)Median realizedImplied today

Implied (75.9) sits −35.2 vols vs the 30-day realized median (111.1) — reads cheap to own.

Reading the tiers below: the 25Δ Risk Reversal

A 25Δ risk reversal compares two equally out-of-the-money options — a 25-delta call and a 25-delta put — and takes the difference in their implied vol. A negative number means puts cost more: the market is paying up for downside protection, and calls are the relatively cheap wing. A positive number is the reverse — calls cost more, puts are the cheap wing.

Tier 1 — Liquid listed options

Spot$1,729

1w+9.5%

RV 30d66.9

IV 30d47.1

25Δ RR−7.2

ETH gained 9.5% on the week; 30-day realized held near 67. Own-book 30-day implied at 47 screens 20 vols under realized — vol is cheap to own here; 25Δ risk-reversal -7.2 — puts pricier (downside bid).

IV term structure, days → vol

25Δ risk reversal · call IV − put IV

Short · 1d expiry−2.2 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

~30d · 28d expiry−7.2 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

Spot$61,716

1w+2.7%

RV 30d48.6

IV 30d34.1

25Δ RR−7.9

BTC gained 2.7% on the week; 30-day realized held near 49. Own-book 30-day implied at 34 screens 14 vols under realized — vol is cheap to own here; 25Δ risk-reversal -7.9 — puts pricier (downside bid).

IV term structure, days → vol

25Δ risk reversal · call IV − put IV

Short · 1d expiry−5.3 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

~30d · 28d expiry−7.9 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

Tier 2 — Alts & reference-anchored

Spot$81

1w+12.7%

RV 30d78.7

IV 30d63.6

25Δ RR−4.3

SOL gained 12.7% on the week; 30-day realized held near 79. Own-book 30-day implied at 64 screens 15 vols under realized — vol is cheap to own here; 25Δ risk-reversal -4.3 — puts pricier (downside bid).

IV term structure, days → vol

25Δ risk reversal · call IV − put IV

Short · 1d expiry+1 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

~30d · 28d expiry−4.3 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

Spot$1.1

1w+5.3%

RV 30d60.3

IV 30d51.1

25Δ RR−4.9

XRP gained 5.3% on the week; 30-day realized held near 60. Own-book 30-day implied at 51 screens 9 vols under realized — vol is cheap to own here; 25Δ risk-reversal -4.9 — puts pricier (downside bid).

IV term structure, days → vol

25Δ risk reversal · call IV − put IV

Short · 1d expiry−2 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

~30d · 28d expiry−4.9 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

Spot$4,170

1w+2.3%

RV 30d27.1

IV 30d20.7

25Δ RR−1.2

XAUT gained 2.3% on the week; 30-day realized held near 27. Own-book 7-day implied at 21 screens 5 vols under realized — vol is cheap to own here; 25Δ risk-reversal near flat (-1.2) — calls and puts level.

IV term structure, days → vol

25Δ risk reversal · call IV − put IV

Short · 1d expiry−1.5 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

~30d · 7d expiry−1.2 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

Tier 3 — Tokenized RWAs & pre-IPO

Spot$160

1w+5%

RV 30d114.2

IV 30d75.9

25Δ RR+2.6

SPCX gained 5.0% on the week; 30-day realized pushed up 111→114. Own-book 30-day implied at 76 screens 38 vols under realized — vol is cheap to own here; 25Δ risk-reversal +2.6 — calls pricier (upside bid).

IV term structure, days → vol

25Δ risk reversal · call IV − put IV

Short · 3d expiry−7.2 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

~30d · 28d expiry+2.6 vols

Puts pricierCalls pricier

Last week, graded

Tagged alt vol the cheapest to own — SOL 30d realized ~77 into Jun 14Realized held ~ 79 (spot +12.7%) — modest carry.

Partial

Flagged XRP realized elevated (~62) with price on the back footRealized held ~ 60 (spot +5.3%) — modest carry.

Partial

ETH realized ~66 led the majors; gamma seen underpricedRealized held ~ 67 (spot +9.5%) — modest carry.

Partial

BTC the calmest major (~49 realized) — looked for vol to stay anchoredRealized held ~ 49 (spot +2.7%) — broadly as flagged.

Hit

Tokenised gold expected to stay subdued (~27 realized)Realized held ~ 27 (spot +2.3%) — broadly as flagged.

Hit

Methodology & sources

ClickHouse index_candles_1d + index_price (RV, cone, spot) through 2026-07-03 close · ClickOptions own book via option_last_books (implied vol, BS model r=4.0%) as-of 2026-07-03 09:15 UTC · RV-only where no IV solves

Vol Value Scores compare ClickOptions' own-book implied volatility to trailing realized volatility on the same underlying — a relative-value read, not a forecast.